Keywords:asteroid landing; surveyor; human missions; bayes decision; multiattribute utility
Publisher:Pasadena, CA : Jet Propulsion Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2012.
Citation:41st Annual Meeting Western Decision Science Institute, Big Island, Hawaii, April 3, 2012
Abstract:
NASA's recent attention and interest in sending a human mission to land on a Near-Earth asteroid raised the question of whether to first send a robotic surveyor. This paper describes a Bayesian approach for comparing the value and cost-risk tradeoffs of sending (versus not sending) surveyor missions prior to a human mission. A multiattribute decision analysis approach was used to account for both mission value and cost in each of 27 hypothetical risk-attitude cases corresponding to an emphasis on mission value; equal priority between mission value and cost; and an emphasis on cost. The decisions implied by the different strategic viewpoints are described.